"IF" Bets and Reverses

I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..

An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the next team.


You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the second game though it was already played.

Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.

You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.

If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.

As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.

Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."

A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:

Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and

Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.

You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.

If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.

If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.

The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..

We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.

(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)

As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:

DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.

For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.

The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.

In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.

The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.

Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::

When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.

As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay should you be winner.

For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.

It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.

Choosing Between "IF" Learn more here and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).

When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.

With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.

The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.

As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.

Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."