How exactly to Bet Parlays in Sports

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The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. 888b pub were made in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.

Initially, this were a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The problem for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in the same game.

Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an impression on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win if you have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.

In case you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.


Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets for you to consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.
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