Business trends in the Macau gaming sector in April ahead of the Labor Day break suggested Citigroup "looks resilient" in a recent memo.

"Given the Labor Day holiday season this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) was generated by less premium mass players this month," analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheng wrote following the agency's recent field survey of Macau's premium mass gaming tables.

The next major holiday in mainland China, Macau's main tourism supply market, is the Labor Day holiday, which runs from May 1 (Wednesday) to May 5 (Sunday).

Citigroup forecast Macau's GGR to reach 18.5 billion MOPs ($2.3 billion) in April, up 26% from the previous year, but down 5% from the MOP19.5 billion recorded in March.

According to Citigroup's April Premium Mass Table survey, pay per player fell 5% year over year. Analysts said the April 2023 survey was "because it was conducted on the Friday before the Labor Day holiday" last year. The 2023 holiday season ran from April 29 to May 3.

"More importantly, a 5 percent year-on-year decrease is more than offset by a 60 percent year-on-year increase in the number of athletes," the agency said. Such growth was "observed to be a 53 percent year-on-year increase in total wages," the analysts added.

Citigroup said total wages observed in its April survey had reached HK$11.1 million ($1.4 million), compared with about HK$7.2 million in April 2023. The number of premium mass players "had reached 568," it added.

"While player-by-player wages fell slightly by 5% to HK$19,467 in April 2024, this is likely due to a 60% year-over-year increase in player numbers, meaning there are relatively more casual premium players compared to April 2023," Choi and Cheng said.

They added, "The Labor Day holiday is just around the corner, and some players will probably save their Macau visas until then."

Citigroup's April survey revealed 18 "whales," who bet more than HK$100,000 per person. "We found whales in five of the six casino operators, excluding SJM [Holdings] during the survey," Citigroup said.

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