Addressing Standard 7.RP

Analyze proportional relationships and use them to solve real-world and mathematical problems.

Addressing Standard 7.SP.5

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

Addressing Standard 7.SP.6

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

Addressing Standard 7.SP.7

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

Addressing Standard 7.SP.7.b

Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Objectives

I can explain whether certain results from replaced experiments would be surprising or not.

I can estimate the probability of an event based on the results from repeating the experiment.

Online Workbook

Take me to the website.

Lesson Summary

A probability for an event represents the proportion of the time we expect that event to occur in the long run. For example, the probability of a coin landing heads up after a flip is $LaTeX: \frac{1}{2}$ $\frac{1}{2}$ , which means that if we flip a coin many times, we expect that it will land heads up about half of the time.

Even though the probability tells us what we should expect if we flip a coin many times, that doesn't mean we are more likely to get heads if we just got three tails in a row. The chances of getting heads are the same every time we flip the coin, no matter what the outcome was for past flips.

Additional Practice on Khan Academy

Use this Khan Academy Link for additional practice or supports for this lesson.